Geopolitics · This week · Brief

Russian product caps and shadow fleet

Replacement tonnage tightens clean Aframax availability into the Med.

Enforcement of the G7 product price caps has tightened the available pool of compliant tonnage carrying Russian-origin distillates. Shadow fleet replacement is partial: specifically, clean Aframax availability into the Mediterranean has tightened by an estimated 12% over six weeks.

The effect is a structural lift to TC6 (Black Sea–Med) and TD19 (cross-Med) rates that is unlikely to unwind without a policy shift.