European gasoil demand correlates more tightly with manufacturing PMIs than with consumer confidence. When German and Italian PMIs print sub-50 for two consecutive months, ICE gasoil cracks tend to compress by $3–5/bbl with a six-week lag.
Trucking telematics — particularly Toll Collect data and motorway sensor counts — give a real-time read on freight activity that often leads PMI prints by 10–20 days. Use them as your early warning.
The current setup is mixed: motorway counts are recovering off summer lows but PMIs have not yet confirmed. We treat any rally in gasoil cracks above $25/bbl as a fade until the demand picture clarifies.