US Gulf Coast ULSD has held an open arb to North-West Europe for most of the quarter. The driver is structural rather than tactical: heavy European refinery turnarounds have removed roughly 350kb/d of distillate capacity at the same time that Asian gasoil cracks have weakened, removing the alternative pull east of Suez.
Freight is the swing variable. Clean MR rates on the TC2 route have softened on improved tonnage availability, lowering landed cost into ARA and keeping the netback positive even as ICE gasoil weakens at the front of the curve.
Watch for two things that could close the window: a recovery in Singapore gasoil cracks (which would re-divert Middle East barrels east), and a return of European refining capacity from Q4 maintenance. Until then, expect the transatlantic to remain the path of least resistance for incremental USGC distillate length.