TD3C is the cleanest single freight signal in the crude market. Because the Arabian Gulf to China route concentrates the largest seaborne flow of crude on the planet, the rate moves before most other arbitrage signals do.
When TD3C jumps without an obvious supply catalyst (no new sanctions, no vessel pool tightening), the move almost always reflects fresh Chinese chartering — typically a leading indicator of run-rate increases two to four weeks out.
Conversely, sudden weakness usually points to refinery turnarounds in Shandong, weak refining margins, or VLCC length opening up out of the West African or US Gulf basins. Pair TD3C with the Brent–Dubai EFS to triangulate which basin is being repriced.