Hull war risk premiums for Middle East Gulf calls have widened to roughly 0.15% of insured value, up from 0.07% a month ago. Three London market underwriters have begun quoting MEG transits on a per-voyage basis rather than annual cover.
Charterers have responded by prepositioning VLCC tonnage at Fujairah, ready to load on short notice if a window opens. Expect TD3C volatility to remain elevated and to widen the spread between fixed and floating storage rates.
Watch the IRGC naval exercise schedule and any reported hull contact incidents — these are the catalysts that move premia by another step.