Geopolitics · Yesterday · Brief

Red Sea convoys reshape Suez throughput

AIS proxies suggest tanker traffic recovering, but container diversions persist.

AIS-derived Suez transit counts show tanker traffic has recovered to roughly 80% of pre-disruption levels, supported by coalition convoy operations through the Bab-el-Mandeb. Clean and dirty tankers have led the recovery; container traffic remains 35% below baseline.

For product traders, the implication is a normalising East-West clean tanker arb but a persistent freight premium on box-equivalent finished product flows. LR2 rates on TC1 have softened in line with the recovery.