Geopolitics · This week · Brief

Venezuela: licence renewals and PDVSA logistics

What current licence terms imply for crude and product exports through year-end.

OFAC's current general licence permits a defined slate of Venezuelan crude exports under specific buyer arrangements. Effective export capacity is constrained more by PDVSA's loading infrastructure and diluent availability than by the licence ceiling.

Expect Q4 export volumes to print in the 700–800kb/d range, with upside capped by Jose terminal throughput. Licence renewal optics in early 2026 will be the next binary catalyst.