Recurring Sharara shut-ins continue to inject volatility into Mediterranean sweet differentials. Es Sider has traded in a $1.50–$3.50/bbl range to dated Brent over the past month, almost entirely tracking outage news rather than refining margin.
European refiners with optionality have substituted Azeri Light and CPC; those without flexibility have absorbed the differential. Expect the pattern to persist while political control of the eastern fields remains contested.