Simulation Center
Decision lab for traders, risk and operations
Three institutional tools sharing one model: a granular netback simulator, a geopolitical scenario engine, and a historical trade replay (preview).
Scenarios
Risk level
Critical
Risk premium 6.50 $/unit
Routing
MEG flows re-routed via Cape; tanker pool tightens 30%.
Freight / time / op multipliers
Freight +85%Time +60%Op +25%
Strait of Hormuz blocked — MEG cargoes stranded, war-risk insurance spikes.
Before
Baseline cargo
| Destination price | 92.00 |
| Origin price | 78.50 |
| Freight | 4.20 |
| Operational | 1.10 |
| Time cost | 0.80 |
| Risk premium | 1.50 |
| Total cost | 86.10 |
Netback+5.90
Margin 6.4%
After
Hormuz Closure
| Destination price | 96.00 |
| Origin price | 78.50 |
| Freight | 7.77 |
| Operational | 1.38 |
| Time cost | 1.28 |
| Risk premium | 8.00 |
| Total cost | 96.93 |
Netback-0.92
Margin -1.0%
Netback Δ
-6.83
$/unit vs baseline
Landed cost Δ
+10.83
$/unit
Margin Δ
-7.4 pp
vs baseline margin
Decision summary
Activating Hormuz Closure shifts the cargo netback from 5.90 to -0.92 $/unit (-6.83). Risk steps to Critical; routing reaction: MEG flows re-routed via Cape; tanker pool tightens 30%.